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The Road Ahead: Is it Inflation or Deflation?
October 1st, 2011In November 2010 we published a piece entitled “The Road Ahead: Is it Inflation or Deflation?” and came to the conclusion that the secular trend for commodity prices was an upward one that had at least a decade to run. If that turned out to be the case we also opined that given the relationship between commodity prices and bond yields this would also result in a reversal of the secular downtrend in yields. The signal we were looking for was a break in government 30-year yields above its 8-year moving average and secular down trendline at 4.65%. That signal never came as commodity prices experienced a primary trend peak in March of 2011 and bond yields sold off towards their 2009 lows. Read the full article on Advisor Perspectives
Special Update: U.S. Debt Downgrade & Stock Market Rout
August 9th, 2011Friday evening, the Standard and Poors’ rating service announced it was downgrading the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+. This is the first downgrade in our history, although two other major rating services have not moved to downgrade. This move adds uncertainty and concern to stock market action that was already acting poorly the prior two weeks.
We did not anticipate either the sharp market correction or S&P downgrade when we published our optimistic June 17 interim newsletter. Stocks rallied strongly for several weeks after publication and then started a wild roller coaster ride down. So what now? Click on the link below to view the entire article.
Sell in May and Go Away
May 4th, 2010Today’s market rout marks the beginning of a significant multi-month decline. We believe a conjunction of factors has come together to open the door for the first major setback in this cyclical bull that started in March 2009. These three factors include:
(1) A peaking in the economic growth rate
(2) Excessive bullish sentiment
(3) Anticipated weak cyclic behavior
This article titled ”Sell in May and Go Away” explains our rationale in greater detail.
“We advise investors take defensive actions for the turbulent months we see ahead.”
