Chart 1 below compares the S&P to our Master Economic Indicator (MEI). It combines the momentum of six leading economic indicators and comes into its own when economic...
A large part of the Pring Turner investment approach is derived from the fact that the business cycle is nothing more or less than a repetitive chronological sequence of events....
Even though we have already experienced the longest expansion on record, the latest data suggest the possibility of a resurging level of business activity as the economy emerges...
The Pring Turner Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) comprises a weighted ROC for three key economic sectors and a financial one. These are construction, consumer spending,...
If you have ever gone to the beach or played in a pool and pushed a beach ball under water, you can appreciate how we associate current stock market conditions with that beach...
The chart of the month (below) compares the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its 12-month ROC. This oscillator is like a pendulum of a clock as it is continually swinging between...
Even though there has been no recession for 10 years, students of the business cycle know that it is still alive and well. Instead of a full-blown contraction in business...
The Wells Fargo Housing Sentiment normally peaks well before recessions. It typically coincides or leads housing starts and is poised to break out to new high territory. A KST...
US stock prices are currently reflecting an exceptionally high level of confidence. Certainly much higher than when we wrote our August 2016 article Stocks Are Breaking the Glass...
In the fall of 1981, the twenty-year US bond yield peaked slightly above 15% and has been zig zagging down through each successive business cycle since. During the last one...
New Highs for the Pring Turner Leading Indicator Suggests Low Risk of Recession Today Most severe stock market declines (-20% or more) have occurred during economic recessions....
A major anxiety amongst stock market participants revolves around two key factors that appear to be on a collision course. The first is an overvalued stock market. The second, is...