Fall 2015 Quarterly Newsletter

November 2nd, 2015

The summer quarter for the stock market started out in promising fashion but unexpected news of China’s currency devaluation abruptly reversed any positive momentum and psychology. Suddenly, continuous overnight news of China’s plunging stock market stoked investor fears around the globe. The U.S. stock market was not immune and reacted in kind. The quarter finished with deep declines of -6.9% for the S&P 500, but adjustments in Pring Turner portfolios reduced volatility and the majority of accounts fared much better. Still, many questions arose from the recent global financial turmoil and we will answer some of those in this quarter’s newsletter.

In recent special client bulletins, we addressed the surge in market volatility, and explained ongoing changes in our outlook and the resulting lower stock allocation in your portfolio.  In the interim, there have been even more incoming client emails and phone calls expressing heightened concerns over current financial market gyrations and future economic outlooks.  This newsletter upholds our commitment to keeping you informed of our current thinking and we hope to ease your concerns about recent financial headlines.  Click the following link to continue reading… Reducing Risk to A Safer Portfolio Speed -2015

Summer 2015 Quarterly Newsletter

August 2nd, 2015

For the stock market, it was a most deceiving first half of the year, punctuated with a real-life Greek drama.  The quarter ended with the S&P 500 price average virtually unchanged for the past six months.  In fact, by some measures, the broader stock market has not changed much at all from the second quarter of 2014. However, this rather muted performance hid the fact there was plenty of downward movement going on under the surface.  For example, the energy sector experienced a complete bear market beginning last summer dropping nearly a quarter in price. Importantly, the economically sensitive Dow Jones Transportation and interest rate-sensitive Utility averages suffered double-digit price declines from recent highs. Despite mild S&P price appearance, thanks to the strength of a few very heavily weighted issues, we characterize much of the market as being in a “stealth” correction.  In simple terms, market action has been much weaker than it appears on the surface and portfolios reflect the underlying weakness. This disparity in market action presents an interesting junction in the stock market.  Click Here to Continue Reading

Spring 2015 Quarterly Newsletter

May 7th, 2015

The stock market moved in a wide range during the first quarter, but for all the gyrations the net effect was quite mild.  By our rough calculation, the Dow Jones Average tacked back and forth more than 8200 points on a closing basis during the first quarter of 2015!  Despite violent day-to-day price fluctuations this well-known index finished down a trifling 47 points. By comparison, the S&P 500 notched a slight gain in the first quarter.  Recent sideways price action seems to reflect the same behavior investors have been witnessing for several months now.  For all the volatility, stocks have been relatively range bound since mid-November of last year. Why have stocks stalled out recently and what’s ahead? Click Here to Continue Reading

October 2014 Quarterly Newsletter

November 18th, 2014

Ouch!  The only good news for the past few months’ stock market performance is we are relieved it is behind us.  This quarter the stock market experienced much more volatility and a stiff decline, thereby ending a long string of positive quarterly returns. Click the following link to read our  October 2014 Newsletter

North Bay Investors Presentation

September 12th, 2014

Click the following link to download a copy of the presentation. North Bay Investors 9.13.14

Pring Turner’s Summer 2014 Video Newsletter

August 29th, 2014

July 2014 Newsletter

July 9th, 2014

Pring Turner clients enjoyed strong returns in the 2nd quarter and once again reached all-time highs in wealth (adjusting for deposits and withdrawals). That makes new highs for portfolios in 13 of the last 15 very challenging years. Grateful for the market strength we are also mindful of typical market behavior in the later stages of the business cycle. Late in the cycle, inflation begins to accelerate and our portfolio tactics gradually adjust to these changes. We are prepared to both navigate the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities in the second half of 2014.

Middle-East tensions historically have a direct impact on energy prices and consequently inflation expectations and investment portfolios. Recent rapid deterioration of security and stability in Iraq in addition to unrest in Libya, Syria and Egypt is certainly an element in the recent upward push in oil prices. One responsibility as conservative investment managers is to determine the implications of Middle-East turmoil and proactively position portfolios for the consequences.  Click Here to Continue Reading

Pring Turner: Protecting & Growing Wealth with Contrarian Investments

June 9th, 2014

Contrary investing is the concept involving taking the opposite side of the majority or the “conventional wisdom” of the day and can be very effective when opinion is heavily one-sided. In this commentary (click to read) we highlight two contrary ideas currently featured in our privately managed accounts and actively managed ETF.

Watch the Spring 2014 Video Newsletter

April 28th, 2014

April 2014 Newsletter

April 14th, 2014

Typical Pring Turner client portfolios glided smoothly and profitably through the first quarter and finished nicely higher. The typical Pring Turner client once again reached another new high benchmark in wealth (adjusting for deposits and withdrawals).  Helping results, bonds were strongly positive in the quarter. Stock sectors that also boosted your portfolio to new high levels were the commodity and natural resource related areas, especially precious metals and energy. We expect these stocks will continue adding to your portfolio profits.

The battle today in the financial markets is the struggle to find the tipping point between the forces of deflation or inflation. Central bankers around the globe are making concerted efforts to lift their respective economies out of the lingering deflationary effects left behind from the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Recent leading economic data from around the world points toward a budding synchronized global expansion for the first time in six years. As we move further into 2014, global tailwinds also support the strengthening U.S. economy and tipping the balance closer to higher inflation. Click Here to Continue Reading Our April 2014 Newsletter